CLEVELAND — The difference between being 1-1 or 0-2 in the World Series is beyond huge.
It’s basically life or death, game-wise.
The World Series team that goes down 0-2 historically has but a 19.6 percent chance of winning it all, per the Society of American Baseball Research.
The Cubs are alive and well.
Their 5-1 victory Wednesday over the Indians at cold and wet Progressive Field shortened the matchup to a best-of-five series — first team to three gets it all.
“For us to win, we generally need to play a clean game,’’ Indians manager Terry Francona said. “And we didn’t do that.’’ Nope.
The Cavaliers came over to help out, all together in a box, hollering with their fresh NBA championship rings thrust out like high-sparkle night-lights. Quicken Loans Arena, the Cavs’ home, is just across the street from the ballpark, and Cleveland seems united in a citizen-wide, all-together push for its second sports title in five months.
But the Cubs aren’t walking away. If both teams will be playing in frigid, nasty conditions — it was 43 degrees at game time, with random sprinkles — then performances such as Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta’s will make the difference.
Big Jake was fully locked and loaded, and he flirted with a no-hitter until faltering a bit in the sixth inning, giving up a double to Jason Kipnis, then a run on a wild pitch.
“Maintaining a consistent feel on a night like this with the weather the way it was can be tough,’’ Arrieta said.
But he aced it with, as he noted, his “cutter going one way and the sinker going the other way.’’
You gotta love Cleveland as a former hard-luck city, but one that now has a long wall as you enter downtown on I-90 that shows a relief of people, facing the tall buildings on Lake Erie, simply cheering.
After tying the series, the Cubs are still in a fragile position. It’s a mathematical fact that the team that wins the first game — the Indians won the opener 6-0 Tuesday night — has a far greater probability of winning it all.
But if the Cubs come back to Wrigley Field and win Game 3, they will then have a 64.9 percent chance of winning the series.
Yes, this is numbers stuff. And numbers are stupid because they’re not human. Anybody who doesn’t think emotion plays a huge role in these things is clueless.
Nobody was sure at the start if manager Joe Maddon was getting, say, a little too showy and maybe emotional. Simply batting the long-rehabbing Kyle Schwarber fifth for the second night was a shocker in itself.
“I’ve never seen anything like it,’’ Arrieta said of Schwarber’s healthy return.
Francona was sure impressed with Schwarber’s two-hit, two-RBI performance and his .429 postseason average.
“I see why Theo [Epstein] sent a plane for him,’’ he said.
Benching high-priced Jason Heyward and starting Chris Coghlan (on Tuesday), then Jorge Soler in Heyward’s right-field spot was also a bold move by Maddon.
The Soler start was interesting in that Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer — he of the drone-propeller/finger-slicing incident — is right-handed. Soler is a righty batter, a disadvantage against righty pitchers. Heyward, even though he’s in a slump from hell, is a lefty hitter.
Oh, well, it all worked out fine, as did batting shortstop Addison Russell ninth. He got a hit and a walk and was on base three times. Even the nearly invisible Heyward came into the game late as a pinch runner and stayed in.
The big deal? The Cubs won.
Homecoming for three consecutive games should be sweet.
“It’s the finest venue in professional sports,’’ Maddon said of Wrigley. “Maybe in all of sports.’’
Then he added the obvious, “Having a World Series to root for, it’s going to be incredibly special.’’
Let the good numbers roll.
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Email: rtelander@suntimes.com
